In November, Maine residents will vote on whether to overturn a law passed earlier this year by the state's legislature that permits gays and lesbians to get married in the state.
Nate Silver runs the numbers: "I'd lay about 3 to 1 against the marriage ban passing. But it's liable to fairly close -- clearly a winnable campaign for conservatives and a losable one for liberals, especially if the sort of complacency sets in that we saw in California."
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